All My Gettings

If all the world can be described mathematically, I'd like to know the equation for figuring the following out. If a student comes into the library and opens a bottle of soda whose carbonation overflows and sends sticky sugar water everywhere, what is the likelihood that this will take place while they are holding a book that was acquired by the library the very same day? Include, if possible, the cost of the book in both dollars and staff time.

Infinitesimal, I would imagine. Regardless, it happened here today. Ugh.